Nobody is better positioned than Georgia for College Football Playoff's 12-team era (2024)

Editor’s note: This article is part of the College Football Playoff Prospectus, previewing and predicting the top CFP contenders and Power 4 conferences for the upcoming season.

ATHENS, Ga. — Through the years, the vibe around the Georgia football program almost always has seemed more relaxed than maybe would be expected. Part of it is simple geography, a campus more than an hour’s drive from the crowds of Atlanta, while mountains around Athens knock down tropical storms.

Part of it is the overall Athens vibe: a town where the music, football and university scenes all co-exist, because, by and large, everyone just seems happy.

Pressure, of course, exists. It’s what cost Mark Richt his job despite plenty of success. It’s what brought home Kirby Smart, the prodigal son who learned the cutthroat ways of Nick Saban and brought them to Athens because for all the personal satisfaction and good vibes, Georgia fans were still desperate for a winner.

For a while, the worry was that even Smart was hitting a wall. Then he finally broke through and got the first national title. Then right away came another. And even though a quest for a three-peat failed last year, there wasn’t a groundswell of anger or even renewed drive. It hurt to lose, especially to Saban one more time in the SEC title game. But this Georgia program is still at an elite level and is built to sustain. Even with a tough schedule, the Bulldogs are the preseason favorites in both the expanded SEC and expanded College Football Playoff.

The danger, however, is this all results in complacency. An assumption is that because this is Georgia, because Smart is still the coach, because of the revolving door of NFL prospects, that dominance is inevitable. Smart realized the danger, as did longtime team mental coach Drew Brannon, who helped come up with lessons and slogans for previous teams. In the past, they studied companies at the top that failed, especially Blockbuster. This year they studied Nike, a business that has sustained, and out of that came this year’s slogan: “Assume nothing.”

“It’s been almost like a reset button for everybody: ‘Let’s start fresh,’” said Todd Hartley, the tight ends coach. “Don’t assume we’re already on third base because we’re not. So it’s been a fresh start for the coaches. It’s been a fresh start for the players. Just embracing that mantra of assume nothing.”

Hartley has been with Smart since 2019, but he’s a Georgia native, born and raised in the state, got his degree in Athens and worked under Richt. He knows the program’s history and has a sense of what it means to win those rings.

When the clock ran out in Georgia’s win over Alabama for the first title, Hartley, who was among the coaches in the press box, came out running and screaming, more than any of the other coaches, to the elevator. But ask Hartley what it all feels like now, in this new world of a 12-team Playoff and a bigger SEC but without the 41-year championship drought on their backs, and Hartley pointed to the insular culture.

“When you’re in it and the way Kirby has built this thing, it’s so process-oriented,” Hartley said. “We talked about the process and not the outcomes. And when you’re not thinking about the outcomes and you’re focusing on the process, you don’t even think about the Playoff. Like you don’t have time to think about 12 teams. You don’t have time to think about SEC and away schedule and whatever it is we have.”

What the Bulldogs have is a schedule with road games against the AP poll’s No. 4, No. 5 and No. 6 teams (Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss). Plus, they face the No. 14 team (Clemson) in Atlanta to open the season and the No. 15 team (Tennessee) at home in November.

The expanded Playoff, with its expanded margin for error, came at the perfect time for Georgia.

Still, if anyone is built to survive that gauntlet, it’s Georgia. The quarterback is Carson Beck, a fifth-year senior and returning starter. There are good weapons for Beck, even with Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey off to the NFL. The offensive line should be good. And the defense has its usual collection of blue-chip prospects, with Smart and company moving them around as chess pieces.

In an interview this spring, Smart pointed out that Georgia largely has been unscathed by the transfer portal and not dependent on it. The Bulldogs have dipped into it, including with eight additions this offseason, but they largely have built the roster the traditional way. The result has been a good level of continuity.

“I think it’s a huge advantage because everybody else doesn’t (have continuity),” Smart said. “So it’s not so much that we do, it’s that the others don’t. Continuity is success.”

Then Smart invoked the team that dethroned his program last year.

“No question that the reason Michigan won it is they were old, almost the entire team we played two years before was back,” Smart said, referring to the 2021 Orange Bowl/CFP semifinal.“That’s just the nature of the beast, you know, a veteran team with experience is going to beat a youthful team, we see it in the NCAA basketball tournament every year. Yeah. And we saw it this year.So I don’t think that’s gonna go away.”

For Smart, that’s the key to Georgia in this new Playoff era: sustainability.

When Georgia lost to Alabama last year, it broke a 29-game winning streak, a streak that seems unlikely in this new era. The Bulldogs could be the prime example for that this year: 10-2 might seem a huge disappointment for the preseason No. 1 team, but against such a difficult schedule, it probably would be enough to get the Bulldogs in the field. And, without knowing how the team and the bracket will look come December, you still would like Georgia’s chances against the field. Just imagine if the expanded Playoff had been in effect last year and Georgia had a chance to atone for the SEC championship, the way it did in the 2021 season.

There was no second chance for last year’s team. This year’s team could get a second and maybe even a third chance. Or maybe the Bulldogs don’t need them.

Whatever the case, no college football team in America seems better positioned for the new era than Georgia. That status can be fleeting, but the people within the program know it.

“Complacency gets you passed up,” safety Malaki Starks said. “If you’re flat-lining, people who are consistently growing are going to pass you at some point. And the goal is not to get passed, just keep growing.”

The coach

Smart answered all the questions about his coaching ability by winning the two titles. This offseason, he has faced more questions about his stewardship of the program off the field with more driving-related arrests, less than two years removed from the alcohol- and speed-related crash that killed a player and team staffer. There was also receiver Rara Thomas’ second arrest for an incident with his girlfriend, which resulted in his dismissal from the program.

“I think for the first time it’s affecting his perception,” said SEC Network host Paul Finebaum, who added that he doesn’t believe Georgia has a culture problem. “I believe that because I believe in Kirby. But at some point, it’s like politics: When the public hears something enough, they do tend to believe the worst.”

There isn’t much Smart can do to quell the outside critics, other than have more time proceed without issues. But on the field, winning can show that what he and the players say about the culture is true: It’s about recruiting the best players and building a program where players feel connected to each other, and that part of the culture, at least, remains strong.

The QB

Beck begins the season as the favorite, depending where you look, to win the Heisman Trophy and be the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. But all that means for Georgia’s chances is it has the most important position settled, as long as Beck stays healthy. If he doesn’t, the job falls to either sophom*ore Gunner Stockton or redshirt freshman Jaden Rashada, a Florida/Arizona State transfer. That wouldn’t be ideal, but this is the program that very recently won a national championship with a former walk-on who started the season as the No. 3 quarterback.

But for now, it’s on Beck, and Georgia has to feel good about that. He has good receivers and should have good protection. The only question is whether the run game will be good enough to keep defenses off balance.

Impact players

S Malaki Starks: A preseason first-team All-American and potentially one of the best defensive players in the country this year. He’s a playmaker and a veteran leader in a young secondary.

WR Dominic Lovett: Georgia’s second-leading receiver last year (54 catches for 613 yards, trailing only Bowers in each category). There are other good returning receivers (Dillon Bell, Arian Smith) and promising transfers (Colbie Young, London Humphreys), which can cause defenses to single-coverage everybody and allow the speedy Lovett to get open a lot.

LT Earnest Greene III: Georgia has had one of the best offensive lines in the country during the past few years, and Greene, a sophom*ore, has a chance to be the anchor this year, along with right guard Tate Ratledge.

Edge Mykel Williams: The upside is huge for Williams, but the question is whether playing more on the edge will unleash his pass-rushing potential.

ILB CJ Allen: When Jamon Dumas-Johnson entered the portal, many wondered why. The answer was Allen, who was so good as a true freshman he threatened to supplant Dumas-Johnson, who saw that and went to Kentucky.

Scouting report

Just how good are the Bulldogs? A Power 5 defensive coordinator certainly likes what he sees.

“They’re the prettiest team in college football,” They’re just bigger than everybody, especially when you look at their guys on defense. That really catches your eye when you’re looking around on the other side in the pre-game. F—, man. Nobody else looks like they do.”

And it’s not just the defense.

“Carson Beck really impressed me,” the coordinator said. “He has such a quick release and is really smart. You can just tell how he operates and how he sees things. He looked more ready for the NFL mentally than most of the guys in this league. He’s very accurate. Throws a nice deep ball. He also moves decent, better than people give him credit for. The O-line is big and mean. There are some other guys in this league individually who are probably more talented but as a group, they’re just a bunch of monsters. Outside, I don’t think their receivers are special. They have good players. Not great ones. I just don’t know if top receivers feel like that is a good place for them to go and shine. Not in that system.

“Bowers was a great player. He took over games when they really needed him to. They will miss him, but I think their other tight ends are better than the wide receiver group. Their backs are good, but I don’t think they are at the level of those guys that were there a while back when it was (Todd) Gurley, and (Nick) Chubb and (D’Andre) Swift. They were just different.”

And the Bulldogs should be motivated after losing to Alabama in Atlanta in December and missing out on the Playoff.

“I bet they’ll have a big chip on their shoulder this year,” the coordinator said. “Bama pushed them around up front in the SEC title game. They have a lot of dudes back in their D-line who everybody wanted. I know they lost a bunch of DBs to the NFL, but none are as good as Starks, and I know he’s back. He is a great player.”

Why Georgia will make the Playoff

There’s just too much talent, and this program is too much of a machine. Having Beck at the controls of the offense is vital, and there are no glaring weaknesses elsewhere on the roster. The defense likely won’t be at the level of the 2021 generational defense, but it should still be very good.

Yes, going unbeaten against the difficult schedule will be hard but not impossible. Even if Georgia slips once or even twice, it should get credit for who it lost to and also who it beat. Going “only” 10-2 may mean losses at Texas and Alabama, but it would mean wins at Ole Miss and Kentucky with neutral-site wins over Clemson and Florida and home wins over Tennessee and Auburn.

Biggest hurdle to making CFP

While there aren’t glaring weaknesses, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss could make them look glaring: The run defense slipped last year, especially against mobile quarterbacks but occasionally against the traditional run attack.

The offense, as good as it was all regular season, hit a wall against Alabama, literally and figuratively, because it couldn’t run the ball. That shouldn’t have been a problem in that game, but it was, and now Georgia has less experience at tailback, banking on Florida transfer Trevor Etienne and a host of sophom*ores and freshmen.

Path to the Playoff

The SEC may have given Georgia extremely hard road games, but it at least spaced them out. There’s a home guarantee game before Kentucky, a bye week before Alabama and two home games before Texas.

The part that on paper gives Smart the most heartburn is November: Florida isn’t expected to be very good, but it’s still the co*cktail Party, and then Georgia has to turn around and go to Ole Miss. Then a week after that is a home game against Tennessee, which could be problematic. It’s a month — and a season — where Georgia’s depth will be tested.

Austin Mock’s projection

Georgia is one of two teams with a top-five offense and defense, according to our model. That’s on the heels of a 42-2 record the past three seasons. Our model says Georgia has a 37.6 percent chance of winning the SEC championship, an 88.7 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 26.5 percent chance of winning the national championship. No team has a better chance of making the CFP and winning the national title, and no Power 4 team has a better chance to win its conference.

The Playoff Prospectus series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Top photo of Kirby Smart: Rich Storry / Getty Images)